Stop Whitewashing Bayesianism

Why we need to throw out the belief-updating cult before it fails us again.

Bayesianism is often treated as a kind of intellectual virtue — the gold standard of rationality. Update your beliefs! Trust the evidence! Refine your priors! But when we look at the real world — where failures are rare but devastating, where unknowns are structural, and where risks are fat-tailed and correlated — Bayesianism doesn’t just come up short.

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