Valeriy’s Substack

Valeriy’s Substack

Bayesian credible intervals are not coverage intervals — and the gap matters

Valeriy Manokhin's avatar
Valeriy Manokhin
Jun 04, 2026
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Two intervals carry the label “90%.” One says the true value falls inside 90% of the time. The other says the posterior probability of the true value being inside is 0.9 given a prior and a likelihood. People conflate them constantly, including textbooks. Including production code.

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